Dueling Democratic Letters on Palestine Reveal AIPAC's Waning Influence
WASHINGTON – Rep. Ro Khanna's letter calling for Democratic lawmakers to support the recognition of an independent Palestinian state is easily the clearest test to date on how far the Democrats are from where they were only months ago, when it comes to Israel and Gaza.
The letter, published on Friday after circulating for weeks, could be seen as a minor event in the current unending news cycle. It includes less than 50 signatures, but in the greater history of how Democrats engage with this issue – it carries significance.
"I'm hoping that the Democratic Party's position becomes the recognition of Palestine," the California Congressman said at the ArabCon gathering hours after his letter's publication. "The only way we're going to shift American foreign policy," he continued, "is by winning the nomination and changing the Democratic Party platform. Until you have new DNC chairs, new people in the foreign policy, nothing is going to change."
Further illustrating the shifting ground was the dueling letter from pro-Israel hawkish Democrats, led by Rep. Jake Auchincloss of Massachusetts, rejecting the premise of Khanna's letter. This document, forcefully supported by AIPAC and other pro-Israel lobbying efforts, ended up closing with 30 signatures.
The pro-Israel lawmakers, sticking to slogans that have been repeated by Israel's representatives in recent weeks, wrote that the "unilateral and performative recognitions of a Palestinian state by other nations ... risk emboldening Hamas, entrenching division and undermining the very legitimacy and peace such recognition purports to advance."
Once upon a time, such an effort would have had the majority of Democratic caucus support and would have only been bolstered by intensive American Israel Public Affairs Committee lobbying. The influence of hawkish megadonors and lobbies like AIPAC, as well as the potential electoral implications of publicly criticizing Israel, have long been a staple of the conversation. Alas, the ground is shifting, and the pro-Israel exceptionalism is much less tolerable in almost every wing of the Democratic Party.
Skeptics may posit that neither letter will make any difference, considering the Trump administration has so forcefully denounced efforts from its international allies to recognize the State of Palestine. This short-view, however, neglects the fact that Gaza will be a motivating issue for Democratic primary voters next year like never before, and this will very likely extend to the 2028 Democratic presidential primaries.
Several key Democrats, whether former Biden administration officials or senior Congressional allies, have now publicly backed conditioning the sale of offensive weapons to Israel unless it abides by U.S. and international law. If trends continue apace, any Democratic presidential candidate who supports the status quo of the U.S.-Israel relationship may find themselves isolated away from their voters across the country.